Prof. Hugh Pennington (president of the Society for General Microbiology) is clear enough in this morning's Herald:
SO H5N1 has arrived in Scotland. Not a real surprise. For the last few months it has been infecting birds in Western Europe – and it is very clear that it is very good at moving long distances.
Bird flu was first described by scientists a century ago, and H5N1 is not only one of the nastiest kinds for birds, but its ability to get about and spread worldwide in the dramatic fashion it has is unparalleled.
Only one other bird flu has caused fatal infections in people. Most kinds of bird flu have stuck to birds.
So how worried should we be? The most important thing to be concerned about is whether H5N1 will change from being a bird virus to one that can readily infect people and spread with ease from person-to-person.
If this happened it is certain there would be a world-wide epidemic – a pandemic. But whether it will happen is very uncertain.
What is most likely, however, is that if this change ever happens the most likely place for it to occur is China or the Asian countries bordering it, because that is where most of the virus infections are occurring.
The discovery of a dead swan at Cellardyke doesn't change that. It is Scottish birds and not Scots who are at risk.
Most of the media seems to have stepped back from the brink today - despite yesterday's blanket coverage. The Scotsman has it about right with this article (subscription only) from Prof. John Oxford, who is one of the more pessimistic of the expert commentators:
It would be difficult for people to catch bird flu - even if they tried really hard.
Ornithophiliacs take note.
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